SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PDT TUE MAY 21 2002

SHORT TERM CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS IN THE SBA AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. GRADIENTS ARE MARGINAL AND WINDS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW THRESHOLDS, BUT THIS IS DURING A USUALLY CALM PART OF THE DAY. EXPECT BOTH TO PICK UP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS POINT AS SUPPORT ALOFT STILL REALLY ISN'T THERE YET. BETTER SUPPORT TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONFIDENCE IS PRETTY HIGH THAT ADVSORIES WILL BE NEEDED THEN.

OTHERWISE, PRETTY CALM WEATHER TODAY AS UPR LOW EXITS THE AREA AND NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. STILL SOME LOW LVL MOISTURE AROUND FOR SOME AFTERNOON CU, BUT WARMING ALOFT IS CAPPING ANY VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOST OF THESE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET. MESO ETA SHOWS SOME MARINE LYR MOISTURE LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SRN PORTION OF LA COUNTY SO WILL KEEP PATCHY LOW CLOUDS THERE EARLY WED AM. OTHERWISE, SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR THROUGH FRIDAY. PRESSURE GRADIENTS HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO TREND OFFSHORE, BUT MESO ETA MIGHT BE A BIT OVERDONE ON THE OFFSHORE PREDICTION FOR WED. AVN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE WITH AT LEAST A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WED AM. THIS BEING THE CASE, AM GOING WITH A SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURE PATTERN WED THAN MESO WOULD SUGGEST AND MORE IN LINE WITH THE AVN MOS. ALSO, MESO ETA IS HINTING AT AN EDDY CIRCULATION, WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE WINDS AROUND PT CONCEPTION. IF THIS DOES OCCUR, MARINE LYR CLOUDS MAY BE MORE EXTENSIVE THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED AND TEMPS MAY BE COOLER, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST.