SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 AM PDT WED MAY 22 2002

JUST A LITTLE HINT OF A MARINE LAYER AND WITH WEAK ONSHORE E-W FLOW AND OFFSHORE N-S FLOW DO NOT SEE ANY MARINE LAYER EXCEPT FOR PATCHY ON THE CENTRAL CST.

AVN IS MODEL DU JOUR AS ETA IS A WAY OFF ON PRESSURE GRADS AND AVN IS SPOT ON AND THE NEXT FEW DAYS ARE ALL ABOUT PRESSURE GRADS.

AS TODAY'S TROUGH EXITS A SMALL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND KEEP THE N-S FLOW OFFSHORE AND WEAKEN THE W-E ONSHORE FLOW.   THE N PUSH SHOULD KEEP AN EDDY FROM FORMING AND THUS THE MARINE  LAYER SHOULD BE KEPT AT BAY.  LOOK FOR A NICE WARM UP TODAY AND THEN FOR IT TO REMAIN AT THESE TEMPS THROUGH THURSDAY.  FRIDAY IS A TOUGH CALL AS AN EDDY IS SHOWN SPINNING UP IN THE MODELS, AND THIS WOULD COUNTER THE OTHER MODEL FORECAST OF OFFSHORE FLOW BOTH N-S AND E-W WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CREATE A LARGE TEMP SPIKE.  RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP FRIDAYS COSTAL TEMPS THE SAME AND BUMP UP THE INLAND TEMPS.

SUNDOWNER IS THE NEXT CONCERN.  A MILD ON IS GOING ON RIGHT NOW AND WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING, BUT WILL NOT DO MUCH.  LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BETTER PUSH TODAY OF ABOUT 1MB WHICH MIGHT PUSH IT INTO THE LOWER END OF A WAD. WILL FORECAST WINDS JUST BELOW CRITERIA AND LET DAY SHIFT SEE HOW THE TRENDS GO.