SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
 325 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2002

SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...KICKED OFF BY A  SHORT WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT.  DOPPLERS TRACKED FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SBA/SLO COUNTY LINE. SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER LA COUNTY  AND DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. AM ENCOURAGED THAT DROPS ARE ACTUALLY  HITTING THE GROUND...DESPITE RATHER DRY AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS AND  CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW. A FEW GAGES ACTUALLY MEASURED. SO FAR  HEAVIEST SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED OFFSHORE.

200 PM PST FRI NOV 29 2002

12Z ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE  MAIN WEATHER FOCUS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS MOVE CENTER OF THE  UPPER LOW OVER ORANGE COUNTY SATURDAY...THEN NORTHEAST OVER NEVADA  SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TAP GOOD LOW LATITUDE MOISTURE  WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED SHOWERS THREAT FOR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME  BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT AS VORT  MAX ROTATES OVER THE AREA. SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY  LESS ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS.  BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THINGS  WILL DRY OUT. SO...WILL END MENTION OF POPS FROM MOST AREAS BY  SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS WHERE A  SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT SUNDAY AS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED  TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO. ALSO...  UPPER LOW WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH  SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED AT  THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING  ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.

 FOR EXTENDED...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST  COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW  ALOFT. SO...WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS  COULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL  EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE.