SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
325 AM PST FRI NOV 28 2002
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FALL THIS MORNING...KICKED OFF BY A SHORT
WAVE ROTATING THROUGH EASTERN SIDE OF UPPER LOW OVERNIGHT. DOPPLERS
TRACKED FIRST WAVE OF SHOWERS AS FAR NORTH AS THE
SBA/SLO COUNTY LINE. SECOND WAVE OF SHOWERS CURRENTLY OVER LA COUNTY AND
DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD. AM ENCOURAGED THAT DROPS ARE ACTUALLY HITTING THE
GROUND...DESPITE RATHER DRY AIR MASS AT LOW LEVELS AND CONTINUED OFFSHORE
FLOW. A FEW GAGES ACTUALLY MEASURED. SO FAR HEAVIEST SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED
OFFSHORE.
200 PM PST FRI NOV 29 2002
12Z ETA/GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER LOW THAT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MAIN WEATHER FOCUS NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS MOVE CENTER OF THE UPPER LOW OVER ORANGE COUNTY SATURDAY...THEN NORTHEAST OVER NEVADA SUNDAY MORNING. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO TAP GOOD LOW LATITUDE MOISTURE WHICH WILL MEAN CONTINUED SHOWERS THREAT FOR THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE TONIGHT AS VORT MAX ROTATES OVER THE AREA. SHOWER POSSIBILITIES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS ON SATURDAY...BUT STILL LIKELY/HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR ALL AREAS. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND THINGS WILL DRY OUT. SO...WILL END MENTION OF POPS FROM MOST AREAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS WHERE A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS WILL BE KEPT SUNDAY AS VORT LOBE IS PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD TRIGGER A SHOWER OR TWO. ALSO... UPPER LOW WILL BRING THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO INCREASING INSTABILITY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000 FEET TONIGHT...SO NO SIGNIFICANT SNOWS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
AS FOR TEMPS...SATURDAY WILL BE COOLEST DAY WITH SOME SLIGHT WARMING ON SUNDAY/MONDAY.
FOR EXTENDED...MODELS STILL INDICATE AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING OUR AREA UNDER A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. SO...WILL KEEP PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING AS SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS COULD DRIFT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AS FOR TEMPS...WILL EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE.