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Saturday, 2/1/2014 [Weather] and [Flight Articles] by [Tess] & [Sundowner]
Weather Archive
and Summary for Saturday 2/1/2014 and the associated weekend
see also [Flight Articles]
The weather looked promising for the weekend on Wednesday, but there were some fatal flaws at it unfolded.
A front passed through on Thursday, and Friday was likely too windy. Pilots did fly Wilcox and Bates. The frontal passage brought north wind and cold air aloft, which equated to an excellent lapse rate on Saturday, which was dry and sunny, but the north wind was problematic. La Cumbre Peak tried to block around 11ish, but it didn't fully block until around 2PM. Pilots went up the hill, but no reports of anyone flying
Sunday was prefrontal. It dawned overcast. Some sun got through around midday and it was likely sharable for a short window, but there was prefrontal wind from the east and the overcast thickened later in the afternoon followed by an hour of light rain around 3 o-clock with a spectacular rainbow about 4 pm.
Monday morning dawned post frontal and clear, sporting a strong lapse rate, and initially light wind building as the day develops. The mountains might have an early window, and Bates may work if the planets align.
Archived the weather because it was one of the few post frontal opportunities
we've had this season, but don't expect anyone to review it. It was a bit
frustrating wanting to fly the mountains on Saturday, watching the weather and
waiting on the radio for someone to hoist the flag and report big altitude, but
I don't think anyone launched. Led me to reminisce about Team Topa in the
90s before all the internet weather tools. We did a lot of high wind
flying in Santa Barbara, like launching at the alternator into 35 knot gusts
from the north and
flying to Point Magu. Actually, that flight was in the spring of 85.
Team Topa later figured out that the Brotherhood was strategically a
better launch option on north days. You could launch a HG either side at the
Brotherhood. If it was OTB, that's were we set up because we knew we would be
able to get off the hill. The Brotherhood was likely the best launch
option on Saturday. Monday is still unfolding and may be the better day of
the cycle, but most of us have obligations other than personal fulfillment.
I was rooting for Payton, but at least I can congratulate my brother who
teaches high school history in Seattle.
Evolving Weekend Pre-Flight Weather Perceptions
Copied from: http://scpa.info/bb/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=3009
Saturday Night Update:
Looks like I'll throw in the towel for Sunday. It was clear at sunset, but
the satellite loop shows a thickening mass of high clouds just off Point
Conception, so we should be under an overcast well before dawn. The 6K
temperature is low, but the surface temperature will also be cold in the
morning. The lapse rate looks much better by 1PM, but by that time, I
expect we won't have much if any sun shining through.
Looks like the best opportunity for the mountains was Saturday afternoon.
Saturday Afternoon 3:30 Summary
Bates came in pretty good for about 45 minutes to an hour, then faded over the
next hour. Pilots mingling on launch when I arrived a little before 1 said
it had been blowing in at 17 knots with a good direction, but it was much
lighter at 1 pm. It came and went a couple of times, getting weaker with
each iteration. John Kloer launched and was getting a couple hundred over
for awhile, but was down much lower by time Tess and I were ready for our
tandem. John top landed, then Tess and I took off, getting about 50 feet
over the lower cliff at best. Dave Bader joined us for awhile. After about 20
minutes we couldn't get above the ridge, so it was time to land.
Saw David Teal on launch while picking up my car about 2:30. He reported
that a group of HGs went to the Eliminator, but didn't set up. There were
some up cycles, a few good strong ones lasting as long as 10 minutes, but it was
more down than up, so they punted about 1 PM an drove back down. The
station reports indicate it did finally draw in steady from the south for a
short while (an hour and a half?) at both La Cumbre Peak and Montecito around
2:30ish.
I'll likely try to fly early Sunday, trying to beat the increasing clouds.
12:30 pm Updated, Saturday
Heading over to Bates. La Cumbre Peak is light. Montecito says it's still
gusting to 26 from the north, but all the other stations are drawing in, so...
The broken CUs up high behind Carpinteria do seem to be a little wind tattered
and drifting from the north.
The mid channel buoy is gusting to 15ish. Bates has light white caps, was
drawing straight in for awhile around 11ith, but is starting to cross from the
right as the velocity builds, but still a good direction.
11:45 Update by Sam for sd
Bates is on. sd is at Viola Fields for softball. Drawing straight in 5-9 knots.
Birds soaring. White caps.
9:45 am Updated, Saturday
Looks like it is backing down pretty fast at La Cumbre Peak. Expect it to be
launchable at the Skyport around 11ish. Not much wind on the water, single
digits mid channel, so don't hold out much hope for Bates to Ventura, but Wilcox
may work.
Saturday Dawn Update
The day looks like it has good potential. There is some north wind this
morning, driven by both the jet stream and subsidence last night, but it is
forecast to back off this afternoon. The lapse rate is very good (strong)
and with plenty of sun, expect high puddle temperature differentials to release
strong thermals with plenty of punch to plow up through the cold air aloft.
The decreasing north wind will likely delay launch times. You may be able
to get off earlier by launching lower. The day should work late with max
altitudes improving to 7 or 8K later this afternoon, especially down range to
the east over the higher terrain. The lower level flow should shift to the
west as the day progresses, with more of a north component at the higher
altitudes.
Friday was more of a transition day and the mountains did not block enough.
Bates tried to come on later in the morning, but then went calm before gusting
through from the north. High clouds on Friday moderated the heating.
Expect more sun today (Saturday) with decreasing wind aloft in the afternoon and
increasing but manageable lower level wind from the west.
I can’t fly this morning, but may be able to assist with retrieve if you get
stuck this afternoon. Call my cell. John Scott (Southside) is reportedly
sponsoring a crew of southies. He has his daughter driving on her maiden outing.
Friday morning update
As promised the forecast has evolved. I currently agree with Southside
that Saturday looks like the best day, but the current NAM forecast runs don't
show the laps rate being nearly as robust on Saturday as the earlier graphic run
posted by John (below).
Friday's afternoon lapse rate looks ballistic, and the current forecast for wind
on Friday is less than earlier forecast, so I suspect there is a good chance
Friday may block in the mountains at the lower altitudes.
I suspect Bates was working on Thursday. I wasn't at the cliff, but it
seemed to be about right from my house in the middle of town. Likely not
enough to jump the gap to La Conchia, but good enough to get up and zoom around.
I expect Bates to pull in today also, perhaps with a bit more gusto.
Sunday is still problematic to nail down. The timing has shifted. Saturday
is now showing less north and more west. Sunday is currently forecasted to
be more of a prefrontal day, offering a good lapse rate, but increasing clouds
in the afternoon followed by light rain after sunset.
I can't fly Saturday due to kids sports activities, so perhaps I'll try to catch
the window at Bates today or give it an early go on Sunday.
Wednesday night look at the coming weekend.
Looks like cold air at 6K. Not very warm on the surface, but still a good lapse
rate. The cold air aloft is due to a cold front bringing north wind that
peaks on Thursday then tapers and clocks around from the west through the
weekend.
Thursday will likely be a no fly day in the mountains due to overcast and too
much wind (over 100 knots at 35K). Friday might offer a window, but there
is a considerable amount of post frontal north wind, increasing with altitude,
however, the lapse rate is pretty strong, so there may be a short block below
ridge line as the day heats, but the vertical mixing will likely pull the north
wind down in the afternoon. Both the lapse rate and wind fade on Saturday,
but there is still some of both. Saturday starts out with a fair amount of
left over north wind, but mostly at higher altitudes. The north backs off
Saturday afternoon and clocks around from the west at ridge line and SW down
lower. Saturday's lapse rate still looks pretty good. A little early to
project out for Sunday, but it may be good also.
Bates may have a narrow window on Friday. The wind aloft Friday is due
north, but the lapse rate is strong enough that it may suck in down low for
awhile.
Saturday may be more robust than Sunday with stronger climbs, but Sunday may be
the better XC day with less wind and more of a westerly flow early, even at the
higher altitudes above ridge line. Saturday will have more of a north
component up higher, so even though you may get higher on Saturday with stronger
climbs, Sunday may yield better glides with less wind but more of a tail wind
component. Of course if you are flying a hang glider, you can simply pull
the bar in on Saturday. If I had to venture an early personal preference,
I have trouble letting a good day go by hoping for better tomorrow, so I'd be
inclined to fly Saturday, but Sunday will likely be more docile and better for
the less experienced pilots.
Recommend flying from the Skyport early in the weekend because it is more
sheltered from the north flow. The Skyport will likely be cycling in
earlier than EJs on Saturday, but EJs may be back in action on Sunday.
This is only Wednesday evening, so expect the forecast to change by Saturday.