[Home] to paraglide.net [SD Log] [Amigo] [Activity] [Photo] [Comments] [Incidents] [Weather] [SBSA] [SCPA]

Saturday, 3/19/2022 [Weather] and [Flight Articles] by [??] & [Sundowner]
[Group Ayvri Link]  [Photos]

Weather Archive and Summary for Saturday, 3/19/2022
see also [Flight Articles]

The day was better than I expected.  With a dry-ish frontal passage there is potential for issues like wind, low cloudbase, and rain.  The early lapse rate did not look impressive during a Thursday night review, but the forecast trended more hopeful by the time I looked again on Saturday morning.  I was hoping for a flight from the mountains to Ventura via the Rincon Coast.  I wasn't expecting to go over Casitas Pass, so I didn't look a the skew-t soundings for Ojai and Fillmore, thinking cloudbase would be too low and there would be too much wind.

Multiple pilots had good flights from various locations in and around Santa Barbara.

Jeff Longcor (aka JLo) did 3 hike and fly peak tags on Saturday. Parma to EJ (3K feet vertical), launching before sunrise, then Carpinteria High School to Power Line Ridge (3,800 vertical), followed by Ojai to Nordhoff Peak via the Gridley Trail (3,300 vertical).  He landed by his car on the 1st 2 flights, then at Thatcher after launching from Nordhoff Peak.  Jeff started hiking up toward the Chiefs launch (3300 vertical) but opted to abort after a mile-ish (600 vertical) due to rain and turned to hike back to his car at the Gridley Trailhead (about 5 miles?).

Elings had a good window when it switched from SE to SW as illustrated by the [photo] Logan posted.

In Karls photos of Bates, the HGs look high enough to jump back to La Conchita and possibly Ventura?  Not sure how the PGs did at Bates.  Early reports indicated that Bates was working with flow from the SE, but Angela reported it "backed off" a little past noon, likely during the switch from SE to SW?  The SW appeared to come in good enough in the afternoon around 3 or 4 o'clock (as per the reporting station archive and Karl's photos).

Clouds played a big role in the day.  I archived a few photos from the Telegram Chat,  but I didn't fly with a camera so I don't have any in-flight photos.

At dawn there were significant high clouds, which the 12Z Nam Skew-t was predicting, but they mostly moved past by mid-morning.  There were additional bands of high high clouds passing overhead through the day which reduced the heating, but they were moving fast enough that they were only transient.  There were mid-level lenticular clouds when looking OTB toward Pine, which indicates wind at altitude. The lapse rate was trending better through the day.  A mild early inversion up to about 2K started breaking by mid-morning.  We had clouds at multiple levels.  Down low there was was a hazy marine influence with lower cloudbase, which started around 1200 feet in Carpinteria but lifted and dissipated as the day heated.  In our local SB mountains the low cloudbase also lifted through about mid-day, but then started to build again at a higher level. At mid-day, cloudbase was lower out front by the Round House but about 3500 at the Thermal Factory and the RnR as shown in the photo set.  Conditions looked better above the lower hazy layer, with mid-day cloudbase over Casitas Pass above 5K.  Cloudbase in Ojai looked even higher, above the Topa Bluffs, so maybe 6500? but into the afternoon the cloudbase lowered, coming down below Divide Peak by 1 PM, and below the bluffs but 2 o-clock.  Santa Paula Peak also had multi level clouds, with a high base above the ridge at 1:30, but also a level much lower down in the haze.  By 3 PM the higher level base over Santa Paula Peak had lower to below the ridgeline and continued to get lower.  Past mid-afternoon, the clouds started to tower and Jeff Longcor reported rain on his hike toward Chiefs from Thatcher.

The wind was a concern, but never got unmanageable.  The winds aloft forecast and NAM were calling for light wind early then building from the west.  The Mid-Channel Buoy was west all day, but only 10ish early and never much over 20 mid-day before fading some later.  Inside we must have had an eddy (or possibly pre-frontal?) because it was from the SE along the coast and in the mountains up until about noonish.  There was a significant on-shore pressure gradient and the wind did pull up the Santa Clara River, but only into the upper teens.  The Upper Ojai Convergence delivered as needed.

The lapse rate was better than expected, good enough to work in light shade by the afternoon, but not good enough to work in thick shade.


Preflight Perceptions:

Posted to the SCPA discussion Forum:

Saturday Morning Update:

The frontal passage might be a little later than previously forecasted and the lapse rate in the mountains a little better… so…

Today (Saturday) the mountains might offer a narrow window to get off from the lower launches, downrange to Castle Ridge, then up and out to reach for the Rincon Coast as the wind starts to pull in?

We still have significant cloud cover to content with, but they are forecasted to thin some mid-day before building later in the day with a chance of light rain.

At dawn the clouds are mostly high and the wind light from the ENE. The high clouds will hopefully thin some before clumping at lower altitudes (6K) and the east wind should give way to building wind from the west.

Bates continues to look promising this afternoon…

Sunday and Monday continue to look too windy (from the north) for PGs in our local mountains

Tuesday looks promising… / hot high pressure but with NE flow we have some protection locally.

Thursday Night Look at the Pending Weekend

Friday (mid-day tomorrow) might be the best weekend option to fly the mountains.  The lapse rate looks weak, but the wind is light, from the east in the morning giving way to some west in the afternoon.  Timing will be important (mid-day through early afternoon?).  The early afternoon west is forecast to be low single digits building toward upper single digits late in the day.  The lapse rate is weak but not inverted.  If the wind stays low it might work, and there could be some convergence over La Cumber Peak?  No need to dress warm, and it will probably be good to launch high and be loaded light?

The coastal cliffs do not look promising tomorrow (Friday).

Saturday is forecasted to have a dry-ish cold front pass through with a chance of light rain.  The mountains look shady and windy.  The morning lapse rate is unimpressive but gets better in the afternoon.  Not sure it will be good enough to work from the lower launches with some west wind and possible OD?

Bates will likely offer a window for flights to Ventura sometime Saturday afternoon?

Sunday looks drier but not promising with significant post frontal north wind. There is a low morning inversion that raises some in the afternoon yielding a good lapse rate up to about 3K. The afternoon weak and low capping inversion may offer some protection from the north wind across the ridgeline, but maybe not enough protection?

Bates might offer a narrow window, but with strong wind from the north up higher Bates can be fickle and might too cross if and when the wind does pull in or push through?


SBSA Telegram Chat

SD at 08:45
Saturday Morning Update posted at:

SD at 08:49
SD looking to carpool from Carpinteria and or East Beach to the Skyport around 10ish…

George Jimenez at 08:51
Bates southeast rookery lookin doable already

SD at 09:53
Sangwon reports: looks like that inversion layer is formed at around 2000ft along the coast all the way to Ventura at the moment. (end quote)

As George noted, Bates is likely soarable now with the coastal stations in Carpinteria reporting 5 to 12 from the SE, and it appears to currently be from the SE toward the west up to about the airport, but lighter toward the west, with Point Conception showing some mild flow around the corner from the WNW. Mid-Channel is likely currently light with Santa Curz island reporting light SW.  Our local mountain ridgeline is also still ESE which is currently pushing past Santa Ynez on the back side, but the west is pulling into the valley about 5 miles inland from the coast.

Local cloudbase in the foothills behind Carpinteria has lowered to about 1200 feet, so I’m holding off on heading out the door, but I’m still hopeful we can get off from the Skyport around mid-day?  At some point, you can’t wait for it to fully clear because by the time you get to launch it has often iterated.

High tide is about 10:20 this morning with low tide about 6 hours later at 4:25 this afternoon.  High tide at Bates can be problematic when it is from the SE.  High tide is ok in a west wind, and the tide will be going out by the time the west pulls in which appears later than the forecast?

Karl Cameron at 09:57
I think the West might start in the next hour or so.  Could be a Bates to Ventura probably will blow out by noon

SD at 10:08
Cloudbase over Snowball looks like it is stating to lift. Any reports from SB?

Chris Lorimer at 10:22
Marine layer at holy hills altitude. Lifting.

SD at 10:29
Thanks Chris
SD out the door solo from Carp for the Skyport. ETA upper Parma (unless anyone wants to carpool from East Beach) about 10:50

SD at 10:53
Departing upper Parma for the Skyport. Cloud base is lower towards Carpentaria but above the back ridge in Santa Barbara

SD at 11:00
Cycling in nice at the Rock. Likely soarable if the fence wasn't in the way.

SD at 11:08
Cycling up at the Bypass. Turkey Vultures are up and about

Angela at 11:16
Bates is on

SD at 11:16
Cycling up at the Bypass. Turkey Vultures are up and about

SD at 11:22

Logan Walters at 11:37
Hill just switched on shore. Bird climbing

CJ Jessett at 12:06
Clearing and lifting at EJ. Light S

Logan Walters at 12:39

Angela at 12:14
Bates currently backed off

SD at 3:24
SD landed safe Fillmore

Jeff Longcor at 4:00
Nice one SD! Fun seeing you in Ojai. Some rain here now. Getting home ok?

SD at 4:41
SD en route to Carpinteria from Fillmore. ETA about 5:20
Does anyone need a ride back to Bates from Ventura?

SD at 5:09
Just passed Bates. There's a hang glider up.

Karl Cameron at 7:09
It was a good session at Bates today.

and Video





 [Top of Page]  [Home]