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Tuesday, 4/7/2020 [Weather] and [Flight Articles] by [Logan]  [Chris Garcia] & [Sundowner]

Weather Archive and Summary for
see also [Flight Articles]

Logan called Monday afternoon to alert me to the pending weather on Tuesday, noting that flying west from Fillmore looked like a possibility.  After spending a little time reviewing on my computer, it looked like there might be a narrow window in the morning before it ODed with rain likely by early afternoon.  The timing had shifted in our favor by the time I did an early morning check on Tuesday, with OD forecasted to hold off for a couple more hours, plus the moisture was moving across the forecast area from east to west, so we were able to get out in front of the advancing OD.  The Tuesday pre-dawn forecast was also calling for a little less wind up high but more of an overall flow from the east which validated our commitments the day before on lining up logistics.

There was a low pressure, somewhat "cutoff", spinning counter-clockwise just off Point Conception, drifting SE.  The forecast was iffy due to the unusual meteorological scenario.  The models didn't have much experience on how it would unfold, but the morning forecast ended up being impressively aligned with reality.  Go to know?  Not that we have any influence over what the day actually delivers, but it seemed like our karma had us positioned well...

We had plenty of cloud development on course, but didn't really have to deal with over development until after we were on the ground.  The skew-T forecast was showing the lift going to at least 6 or 7K, but cloudbase ranged from the mid 5s to the mid 3s so were were altitude limited, particularly along stretches where there were rocks in the clouds.  Cloudbase was much higher across Casitas Pass than along Power Line Ridge and Castle Ridge, so Logan and I were well above cloudbase along that stretch.  We bowed out along and above the leading edge of the towering development and were treated by stunningly colorful views with billowing whites contrasted against saturated greens and deep blues from the vibrant sky and ocean.

The lapse rate was stellar (again) with freezing level just over 5K.  Mark Pratt reported Fillmore had some clouds at dawn, but it was absorbing full sun during our inland journey along Hwy 126.  We were also driving toward advancing heavy cloud cover to our east, but we were able to get airborne early enough to be in front of it.

The base wind was primarily light from the south east, but with such a strong lapse rate there was stiff localized draw in places, enough to be occasionally scary.  The cloud tops were leaning from the north early in the day, but the wind down lower us drawing upslope from the SE.  Later in the day the wind down low did draw in from the SW, and Logan reported encountering headwind even at the mid altitudes near the end of his flight, and his perception of a shift seems to be validated by reviewing the last few thermals of his KMZ track.

It got dark quick by mid afternoon followed by light rain then increasingly harder rain around 5:30 (at Lake Cachuma).

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