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Sunday, 7/19/2015 [Weather]
and [Flight Articles]
by [Gracecab] & [Sundowner]
plus Sundown's [Photos] Google
Earth [KMZ] 3d Track and [IGC] Data File and [Reflection]
and 13 minute Google Earth Pilot Eye [Video Tour]
Sunday, 7/19/2015
total straight line distance ~ 67.46 miles
4 1/2 hours airtime, 10:59 am to 3:28 pm
Niviuk Icepeak 6
Altitude Note: for the most part, altitudes reported in this article and photos
are the Flytec instrument indication
Flytec Reading 3123 MSL on launch, matches Google Earth
Flytec Reading 843 on landing, 92 feet higher than Google Earth at 751, so I
think most of the reported altitudes during the flight are about a hundred feet
high.
Comment: You can view this article on your smart phone, but if you just want the headlines, no need to read past the header. If you are a student of the game, I'd recommend waiting until you can budge some time to sit down at a full size monitor with a mouse to navigate in Google Earth. Multiple monitors are useful (I have 4 on my desk) so you can read and reference the photos plus Google Earth and other assets simultaneously without having to keep closing and opening windows.
Sundowner's Flight Report, see also [Weather Archive] [Photos] Google Earth [KMZ] file [Video Tour] and [Post Flight Reflections]
Started looking at the weather mid week and took note of Hurricane Dolores. Would have liked to fly Saturday, Sunday, and Monday, but it takes me too long to write my flight articles, so I rolled the dice on Sunday. Up about 5 am to check the weather because our logistics were still unconfirmed. We had a couple of permits for the Nordhoff Road to Chiefs, plus crew to match, but the truck situation was iffy. Max was initially confirmed for Sunday, but after watching it rain on Saturday he got cold feet and wanted to evaluate Sunday morning before committing. There were a number of other pilots who said they wanted to fly on Sunday, but they must have slept in.
Started phoning Max about 6:30 because I wanted to post an early meet time, but no answer. Peter was our primary confirmed driver. He was scheduled to be at my house no later than 8, but at 8 o-clock he still wasn't picking up his phone. I realized there were a lot of variables in the day with no guarantees, but I was excited about the potential and was in the go mode. Contemplated the Nuthouse, but it would be a grueling hike in the heat and somewhat of a late start. Trying to brainstorm with the clock ticking, I stumbled across Fillmore running through the list of options and took a quick look at the NAM Skew-t forecast for Grand Avenue, which prompted a call to Mark Pratt about 7:45. Mark picked up on the first ring, which was a welcome variance on a morning when everything seemed to be going to voice mail. Mark agreed without hesitation to get us to launch if the road wasn't too slippery from the rain. Max called while I was on the phone with Mark to say he was opting to pass. I didn't have time to twist his arm because I was juggling multiple calls. Posted a 9 am meet time in Fillmore and was scrambling to get out the door when Peter called a little after 8. He had overnighted his camper along the Rincon, so I arranged to meet him at Bates to leave a vehicle. We picked up Chris Ballmer at his house in East Ventura and arrived at Mark's about 9:15.
On the way up the hill Dave Bader called and said he overslept. The sky was looking kind of dark, and Fillmore requires an escort, so I didn't encourage him to race eastbound. Dave went to the Skyport instead. We couldn't get through the last gate because a new property owner had changed the locks. Tried calling Ronny (who can get through anything?). We could see his truck down below, but he wasn't picking up. The 1/2 mile, 270 foot vertical hike up a 10 to 1 average grade along the dirt road was easier than expected, but hot and sweaty in the tropical humidity. At launch about 10:30ish.
Cycles were light. Straight in from the SE about 3 to 7. A few of California Condors were working the boundary convection [photo], but they didn't seem to be thermalling up and away from the windward faces. It was kinda of dark at launch, but lighter over town. Not full sun, but some heating was getting through. It was generally darker over the high terrain and lighter over the valleys. A light section seemed to be moving from town toward San Cayetano, but the light section also had a trailing edged that seemed to be closing in behind. Opted to roll the dice and give it a go despite the weak conditions because I wasn't encouraged that it might clear later. Got my inReach tracker turned on and sending data points for it's maiden voyage, but in a rush to catch the transient light patch I forgot to set my camera for outdoor shots.
Airborne just before 11 in a less than an optimal cycle. Went left and tried to mimic the condors, but was loosing all the way and was below launch on my trip back. Fished out the south spine a short ways, but no joy so I went OTB from a hundred and twenty feet below launch elevation and pulled the glide across the river to San Cayetano Ridge [photo]. No sink and smooth air going across in the shade. Logged a 9 to 1 average glide angle across the 2 mile stretch, consuming a thousand plus feet. Came in 4 or 500 higher than my prior crossings on SE days where I typically have a tailwind crossing, but also a lot of lee side sink which wasn't present on Sunday.
Still didn't know if it was going to be soarable. Arrived just below the top of the first triangle point (Hump 1) with 2037 MSL 5 minutes after launch. Broke even in a long trolling figure 8. Tightened it up on the 2nd figure 8 and adjusted to search a bit out on the north (lee) side because the wind was minimal and it seemed to be convecting up both sides. Did one more figure 8 (3 full figure 8s total or 6 reversing turns) and had gained a hundred feet, enough to search over the top of the knob and commit to a 360, which worked. Continued to climb slowly in the smooth weak air, doing 13 circles to gain 883 feet (from low arrival point) about 60 feet per circling turn, topped at 2920 MSL and went on glide uphill across the gap in the ridge.
The glide was pretty buoyant. Stopped for one turn early on and gained a little. Used about 250 feet to go 0.85 miles (18 to 1). Stopped for 3 turns on the uphill side of the gap in the ridge, but only gained about a hundred feet, so I kept going uphill along the ridge for another 6 tenths of a mile. I was initially about 350 over the ridge upon leaving my 3 turn thermal on the uphill side of the gap, and pulled an average glide downwind/uphill to intercept the ridge 800 yards further along. Once on ridge line it got buoyant and I gained a hundred over the next quarter mile, but kept going for a prominent spine further uphill. I was gaining altitude slightly, but falling further below ridge line traveling uphill. The lift was weak, not strong enough to turn on, but it was reassuring to know that I could turn back downhill if necessary. About a hundred below ridge line and a quarter mile short of the prominent spine, I stopped to do a figure 8 on a little bump and gained enough to clear the ridge line and start circling for 6 turns, gaining 700 feet. The lift seemed to be better higher up, so moved over the prominent spine and gained another 2200 in 18 turns (120 feet per turn), topping at 5760 in the sweet smooth lift.
Watched Chris Ballmer cross the river. Looked like he left above launch and pulled a good glide, arriving higher than I did under my higher performance wing, but from my perspective, he seemed to be going wide well in front off the ridge (looking for ridge lift out front?) rather than searching for thermals dribbling off the crest. There was very little wind. Not enough to sustain in ridge lift so the only way to climb was to latch on to a thermal bubble. I encouraged him via radio to try and follow my lead and search directly over the spine, but the early thermals were weak down low and he fizzled.
Pretty stoked to connect in the shade. Had enough to over-fly San Cayetano Peak, and continue on to Santa Paul Peak. Used 700 feet on the 0.85 mile glide and came in on the SE spine near the top. Fished uphill and found a lee side thermal coming up the prominent bowl on the SW side of the peak. Got back to almost 5500 in 7 circles and continued Westbound. Didn't really hit anything worth stopping for after Santa Paula Peak, but the glide was buoyant in smooth air. Continued westbound off the high break of Santa Paula Ridge a couple miles west of Santa Paula Peak with about 4900 after loosing 600 along the ridge (a 17 or 18 to 1 glide). It was smooth, weak, and dark. Didn't think I'd have enough to reach for Upper Ojai, but there was some light getting through on the east end of Sulphur Mountain [photo], so that was my initial inclination.
As my long glide progressed, the sun patch moved NNW toward the middle of the pass [photo] that climbs up from Saint Thomas College to Upper Ojai, so I adjusted my course. Not really landing friendly terrain, but I figured I'd poke out for a sniff and fall back to the college if necessary. The glide through smooth buoyant air continued to be impressive, but nothing worth turning for. The sun patch continued moving NW to the plateau fields [photo] off Koenigsten Road (just below Puckers Spine that runs up to the Topa Bluffs). My glide was good enough that I shifted more to the right toward the plateau fields. The buoyant air continued, so I was able to commit even more to the right and over-fly the triple front points on the end of the Puckers Spine. No luck, so continue west across the canyon to the SE spine of Boyds, aiming for the highest intercept achievable. Got there about 200 below the peak and did 8 reversing turns (4 full figure 8s) to just barely clear the top and start circling. After 6 circles I was able to get up to 3800ish after arriving with 3157. Tried to fish up the spine, but had to come limping back out and got back to 3750 again before leaving downwind for the East Repeater Front Point.
Arrived at East Repeater a little below the top and did a 3 full figure 8s (6 reversing turns) to gain a hundred feet. Normally too low to keep going, but it didn't seem like East Repeater was giving it up, so I continued west thinking that if I could clear the low ridge in front of West Repeater I could stretch a glide to Thatcher School. Hit a thermal over the west end of the East Repeater West Spine and drifted with it downwind, gaining 700 to feet to 4200 in 10 turns, which got me half way to West Repeater and in position to search above the front point. The west side of West Repeater was good for another 900 feet, climbing to 5K in 9 turns, drifting from the east. Chiefs looked inviting [photo], but it was off course and the extra altitude wouldn't be worth as much in the back, so I continued on to Twin Peaks, which didn't produce, so it was a 4 mile glide to Nordhoff. Fished over Bruce's Point and continued westbound to the east end of the main lower ridge, arriving with 3600.
The valley seemed to be opening up with more sun getting through. Nordhoff was on the leading edge of a sun patch, but you want to be on the trailing edge of the sun and the leading edge of the shade. The track log shows a lot of spaghetti at Nordhoff. Got into the upper 3700 range a few times, and back down to around 3600, bouncing back and forth between the middle bump and the west side. Spent 15 minutes in the kitchen waiting for the water to boil, arriving at 12:15 and finally leaving westbound at 12:30 with the same altitude I arrived with. Getting stuck would normally equate to a greater degree of frustration, but I was deliberately slowing down to let the clearing from the east catch up. There was flow from the east, but there didn't seem to be sustaining ridge lift, and I was concerned I could flush. Finally got impatient and went west hoping for better. Hit some scraps midway to the west end of Nordhoff Ridge, but it only got me to 3800, about the same altitude apex as the prior 15 minutes, so I continued on.
Arrived about 150 below the top of Pyramid Peak. Did a 180 on the south spine, thinking a thermal should be there, but lost another 150 in that one figure 8, so I had to keep going. Ended up coming in even with the east finger spine of Spine One with 33 hundred and stumbled onto a workable core. Climbed 900 feet to 4200 in a dozen turns. The thermal started out drifting from the SE, but then tracked almost straight north the last few turns near the top. 4200 is a little low for crossing Hwy 33, but you also need to step out to the south, so I left the thermal to search out the main spine that runs SSW because the thermals trajectory was shallow and it wasn't worth drifting back. Didn't find anything over the main spine, but I got a good glide westbound so I kept going.
Much better than typical glide across Hwy 33 despite leaving somewhat low [photo]. Was able to skip the low arrival ridge and angle directly for the top of Bump 1. Hit a thermal midway up the low arrival ridge (but well above it) and climbed 1100 feet in a dozen circles from 3100 to 4200, drifting from east and topping out over Bump 2 for an easy glide westbound to Bump 3. A 10 turn thermal coming off the east end of Bump 3 was a better trajectory, going from 4100 to 5100 for 500 feet of bonus altitude for the next move up to the Back Step. Another good westbound glide along the back ridge, arriving over the Backstep with 4850 and climbing to 55 in another 9 turns drifting from the east. Over-flew the High Step, but no joy. Continued on to the back of the saddle behind White Ledge. Had enough to continue along the back ridge, but East Divide was dark in the back and there was a nice cloud over White Ledge Peak, so opted to detour south fishing over the saddle and clearing the peak with a couple hundred to spare. Fished a little further south and found my best thermal of the day. Big, fat, sweet, and smooth. It was obvious after a couple of turns that it was going all the way to cloudbase. The only time I reached cloudbase all day.
Opted to roll out and get on course before losing visibility to avoid getting out of position. Did one turn over both East Divide [photo] and West Divide, but the lift was just a teaser and I still had 6K over West Divide so I just kept bobbing downwind with a ground speed over 40 mph. The clouds angled inland to the NW after Divide. Santa Barbara was sunny. It was mostly a downwind 11.7 mile glide across Ramero Saddle [photo], descending 3500 feet (6690 to 3173). The tailwind was progressively less at the lower altitudes and I lost almost 15 mph of ground speed by the time I arrived at Ramero. Averaged 33 mph over 21 minutes getting a 17.5 to one glide. Stopped for a couple of turns along the way, but it was sucker lift. I speculated it was the effect of descending downwind through the gradient. The nose would pop up, but after turning on the bounce there would be nothing there on the upwind leg. Opted to just keep going and skip off the bounces.
Reports from Dave Bader flying from the Skyport in Santa Barbara indicated the PG pilots were getting into the low 4s, and a few HGs were a bit higher. The punchy air in the sun was an annoyance after the smooth sweet stuff in the shade earlier in the day. My objective was to get back too the clouds, but there isn't a good low route with reasonable LZs and retrieval on the north side of the Santa Ynez river east of Red Rock, so my plan was to try and get to La Cumbre Peak to and take it OTB.
Didn't bother to spend much time working the ragged lift. Picked up 300 at Ramero, climbing back to almost 3500. Had to work the east spine of Montecito, climbing from 2550 back to 3500 in 11 turns, plenty to reach Parkers with a tailwind. Parker was good for 700, climbing from 2700 to 3400 in 8 turns. Angled behind the Antenna Farm with the initial intent of benching back to the Thermal Factory, but it seemed off line, and with a little wind from the east, I didn't want to deal with lee side stuff, so I diverted left and crossed Rattlesnake Canyon to the Holly Hills, coming in just behind the power lines with 2700. Needed to fish around a bit, but finally centered up on a 6 turn core that went to 3450 for an easy bench back to the RnR.
My intention was to go OTB from La Cumbre Peak, but once I centered on the core at the RnR, it climbed good from 3400 to 4900 in 15 turns, drifting from the SE. I topped out over EJ's launch. Considered running up to La Cumbre Peak because it is a shorter glide across the river to SE Bowl and Connector Hill, but the air in SB was mostly ratty and the altitude reports not so good, so I opted to take my altitude and go with what I had because a bird in the hand is worth more than more in the bush?
Got a pretty bad glide in heavy lee side sink, but fortunately, I was above most of the turbulence. Came in on SE Bowl [photo] with a little to spare and rocketed back up from the low 2s to over 4K. Tried fishing back on the poorly defined spine that connects Connector Hill to Little Pine Mountain, but there was significant SE wind at altitude. Then tried fishing upwind toward the east, hopping for a thermal with a better trajectory that wouldn't drift me down wind of the connector spine. Camuesa Peak seemed like it was a better route to connect back to Little Pine in a SE wind. Camuesa Peak is just north of Gibraltar Reservoir and too far upwind to reach. There weren't any clouds out over the front points, but I wasn't sure it was wise to commit back to Little Pine in the wind with cloudbase only around 6500 to 7K. The altitude would be worth more out front, and the prospect of landing in the wind was a consideration.
Gave up on trying to connect back to Little Pine Mountain and opted to loop back to Connector Hill. Got back to a little over 4K again. It seemed like the thermals had good trajectory down low, but approaching 4K the wind got the better of them. Opted to take my 4K and boat downwind to Sage Hill [photo], which was good for about 400 feet back to 3500, but the trajectory was shallow. The next front point further west in front of Loma Alta Peak worked better with an 8 turn climb from 3K back to almost 3670. The front points pretty much end at Loma Alta, so it was westbound over the flats, angling against the south component of the SE wind. Stumbled on a decent climb a couple miles WSW of Loma Alto over the mouth of Horse Canyon and climbed to over 4K, picking up 700 feet in 6 turns.
Peter was technically our official chase, but I hadn't heard from him since I left the truck at the gate in Fillmore. His last indication was that he was intending to focus to other priorities but would look for me toward the end of the day. Dave Bader had landed at Parma then went to the ridge line after retrieving his Prius from the Skyport. He asked (via radio) what my chase logistics were and I responded that I wasn't relying on retrieval. Dave offered to drive over the back to get me, so after leaving Loma Alta my initial intention was to try and make it to the east end of Lake Cachuma, within hiking distance of Hwy 154. The thermal over the fields in front of Horse Canyon drifted from the ESE. When I lost it I initially pointed toward the lake, thinking I might be able to reach the boat ramp [photo] with the altitude from my last climb, or at least get close to the Hwy.
Evaluating the options: I could likely land close to Hwy 154 for an easy retrieval. Not sure about retrieval on the north side of the lake, but that route looked better from a continuation perspective. I'd have to get on bar to fight the south component of the SE wind to reach the boat ramp, and it was likely into the lee of the Santa Ynez range, so a glide further south might deteriorate. Going straight downwind toward landable fields [photo] that might be feeding the clouds to the north seemed like a better option even if the retrieval options were unknown, so after 800 yards on glide toward the boat ramp I gave up on the lake and angled slightly right to run straight downwind.
Used 800 feet of altitude after leaving the Horse Canyon thermal with 4050ish, but a mile and half later I stumbled onto a buoyant stretch along the eastern edge of Santa Cruz Bay. Broke even for the next 3/4 of a mile and then encountered some lift on the western edge of the bay that went from 3200 to 3700 in 4 turns, drifting from the ESE. I now had the fields north of the lake within reach. Consumed a thousand feet on the next 2 mile glide to the western edge of Cachuma Bay, which was also the eastern edge of the fields. Did a couple of turns to gain a hundred feet and got back to 2800, but just breaking even and drifting was worthwhile. The fields [photo] were buoyant and I only lost about 250 feet over the next mile before stumbling into a sweet thermal at 2600 as I approached Aliso Road (didn't know any of the road names or landmarks names a the time). Aliso is dirt road, but it is on the map. Don't know if it is gated or retrievable. Anyway, the climb was sweet and fat. The thermal seemed to anchor in the wind. The trajectory was off the wind line drifting mostly north toward the clouds for the first dozen turns up to 4400. It than flattened out somewhat and tracked toward the NW from the SE for another 7 turns to almost 5400, topping out over the eastern edge of the mouth of Happy Canyon.
I was on the edge of massive cloud development to the north. My intuition was telling me to head north a mile or so away from the flats and into the low hills and canyons [photo], toward the thicker development which was angling to the NW. I needed to make a quick decision and opted for the certain retrieval, following the edge of the flats, thinking the altitude would be worth more out front. Problem is I drove out the front side of the feed line for the development that was angling more NW than my WNW track. Did stop for a few turns about 2-1/2 miles further west, but only gained a hundred. There was another cloud street to my south [photo], and it seemed like I was on the downwind side of it, encountering the associated sink. To make matters worse, my plan to bob along downwind over the flats working zero sink was disrupted by onshore flow from the west (headwind) as I descended to a lower altitude and approached the outskirts of Santa Ynez. My ground speed went from good to sub-par on the Flytec. The GPS track tells a sad story. Had to get on bar to make headway. I suppose I could have turned around and headed back downwind, but I was in the greedy miles mode and wanted a few more, so I plowed ahead, away from the favorable line.
Reached some green fields [photo], but upon inspection, most of them seemed to have high fencing. Opted to land in the front yard of a horse ranch, thinking it would be easier to get out. Fell through a gradient to very little wind on the deck, but mostly easy landing conditions. Concerned about overshooting the small LZ, so I stayed back a bit and set down on the driveway a few yards short of the grass around a fountain [photo]. Got undressed and dumped the gear over a manageable 50 inch wall to a large grass lawn by the street to pack up in the shade of a handsome pin oak.
Dave was on the radio, but I didn't know the street names. I flagged down the first vehicle, but it was a Hispanic family that spoke little English and my Spanish is rusty. Turns out I was at Magali Farms [photo] on Casey Ave, a paved road, but from my broken conversation the Hispanic family, the only street name I got was Roblar, which runs parallel to Casey a half mile to the north. Apparently Magali Farms is a large facility for high end horses and borders several roads. Dave was close enough for good radio reception, but my initial information with the wrong street name didn't help so he wandered up Mora Ave to Roblar. Mora runs perpendicular to Casey (my street). Not much traffic on my road, maybe one car every 10 minutes going pretty slow. Flagged down the next one and a woman driver gave me water and drew a map. She had seen Dave's Prius back on Mora, so she went back to look for him. I returned to my gear to unpack and repack keeping an eye on the road. The next vehicle to come along was Peter in his Navion RV. Hadn't heard from him all day. Apparently he was on 144.25 rather than 146.46, but he followed via my Delorme inReach track map that posted to the web, so he could access my progress with his cell phone. He said he sent me a text message. The text messaging function on the inReach is a useful retrieval tool, but clunky to operate and navigate, so it's not something you are going to access in flight. I did find his message later. Anyway, the woman found Dave and they showed up a few minutes later.
Beautiful break down area [photo]. A maintained green grass lawn under a beautiful tree next to a paved road in a sort of rural residential neighborhood so the traffic was slow but adequate. Took my time packing up and we were mobile in Dave's Prius about 45 minutes after touchdown. Did Lunch (Dinner?) at the Padaro Grill. Sat on the upper deck with a view of multiple storms moving our way and finished eating just as the rain arrived. Was still dumping heavy when Dave dropped me at my car in the lower Bates Parking lot.
Remorse
I was pretty elated and glowing after my flight, but a couple days later a little remorse set in. At the end of the flight I did realize that I left miles on the table, but rationalized my mistake and sequent loss with the notion that I'd had an impressive flight and would be able to go further the next time. The day had 100 plus mile potential. During the summer flying you make your best miles late in the day, slowing down trying to stay high in the stronger upper level flow. Sunday offered that opportunity. It was only 3:30 at landing, which might be late for March, but early for mid July. Looking at the final photos of the sky, I suspect the day had a couple hours left in it before it finally oversaturated and dumped. I think that had I committed into the badlands and connected to cloudbase I would have avoided the lower river flow (gone north of it) and benefited from a 15 mph tailwind. Might have been able to tack on easy miles at the end of the day. In hindsight, I think we can get that far again on the right day in March and maybe April, but the spring season days are much shorter so the heating will be done by 3:30. The opportunity to do it in July is a once in a decade occurance. I might be too old the next time a hurricane gets this far north in July, but maybe with the developing El Nino we'll get another opportunity later this season or next summer.
Oat / Fillmore
I've flown Oat a lot, starting with Hang Gliders in 1981, then in the later 90s I'd occasionally to take my PG students to the top early in the day. I've only recently started going to Oat for it's XC potential westbound. From Santa Barbara, Fillmore is sort of the end or the range run. To go further east, you need to transition to alternate techniques. Going westbound, Oat is the beginning of the course. We look for days with flow from the east, of which there are multiple variations, including Hurricane Delores in July of 2015. I can think of 4 typical variations of east flow (but there are others).
The Catalina Eddy is a low altitude effect. It does sometimes mix with the other categories, including the diurnal cycle where it tends to be SE in the morning before the afternoon west pushes through. The Eddy is generally driven by low altitude laminar flow around Point Conception from the NW. Our South Coast is on the back side of the point, so it is common for a big broad eddy to set up. The eddy may offer some local opportunities down low, but it doesn't' really offer much in the way of XC potential, and usually doesn't penetrate all the way up the river to Fillmore.
The Santa Anna events come in various flavors, but are generally driven by descending air over the high desert. The descending air gets heavy down low due to the compression, so it wants to "Drain" off the high desert toward the ocean. The events are significantly effected by the strong diurnal cycle in the spring and fall seasons where it tends to cool and drain katabatic at night followed by heating and upriver flow during the day to feed the inland convection. The Santa Anna events work best on the borders. The down slope flow will often clear the marine air from Ojai and Santa Barbara, but our local sites aren't in the main drain path from the desert to the ocean, so we are somewhat protected from the stronger wind. We will typically get light to mild east flow early on Santa Anna Days in Santa Barbara, but the lower level west will often pull in as the afternoon thermal action draws.
We have tired to fly back to Santa Barbara from Oat on a couple of Santa Anna occasions but were not successful. The big problem is that the Santa Anna wind tends to be too strong down the Santa Clara River, so we look for light to mild Santa Anna days, but when the Santa Anna event is weak, it tends to reverse and come from the west by early afternoon. We end up waiting on launch at Oat for the wind to back down, but by that time it is too late in the day to make it back to Santa Barbara against the building west. Oat Mt has a good launch facing SE, but the first move after launch is running downwind into the lee side to cross the river to San Cayetano Ridge, so if the wind is strong, the lee side stuff is intimidating. There is a road up to gap in San Cayetano Ridge on the west side of the Sespe. If we can gain access to the road, then we wouldn't need to deal with the lee side rotor behind Oat. It would be downwind uphill, so we could launch earlier in stronger wind.
Prefrontal likely offers the most common opportunity to go westbound from Oat. Prefrontal does have its problems. It is often accompanied by low and lowering cloudbase. We need a good low level lapse rate because after launching from Oat (3100 MSL) we generally come in low on the other side of the river (1500 MSL). We also prefer increasing wind at altitude with lighter wind down low, and don't want building west flow in the afternoon which would equate to a headwind approaching Santa Barbara from the east. Prefrontal sometimes offers all three preferences with increasing SE in the afternoon as you get closer to Point Conception because the broad south flow wants to venturi around the corner
The Monsoonal Flow tends to occur in the summer and is typically more of a higher altitude event, usually not reachable from Oat, but Hurricane Delores in July of 2015 was a variation that yielded a good lapse rate down low, light wind on the surface, but increasing wind at altitude, increasing flow toward Point Conception, and a relatively high cloudbase for the front range (but low for the back range).
As of 7/2015 I've made 4 recent attempts to fly west from Oat.
So we are presently 2 of 4 (as of 7/2015), but I think we understand the weather requirements better and know what to look for so I expect our batting average will improve
Acknowledgements
I need to personally thank some of our team members, including Brendan, Mark, Dave, Peter, Max, Andy, Eddy, and Diablo. Without their contribution, the day wouldn't have unfolded as it did.
And of course we need to thank Eagle Paragliding and Fly Above All for their personal support plus promoting our local flying and producing new pilots to keep growing the activity which makes it better of all of us on multiple fronts.
Sunday, 7/19/2015 [Weather]
and [Flight Articles]
by [Gracecab] & [Sundowner]
plus Sundown's [Photos] Google
Earth [KMZ] 3d Track and [IGC] Data File and [Reflection]
and 13 minute Google Earth Pilot Eye [Video Tour]